Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine and the Modern History of Belarusian Statehood

This article examines the evolution of Belarusian statehood, highlighting the transition from its independence in 1991 to the increasingly authoritarian regime under President Aleksandr Lukashenka. It scrutinizes the complex relationship between Lukashenka and Russian President Vladimir Putin and the repeated breaches and renegotiations of their political contract. The analysis covers Belarus’ oscillation between integration with Russia and attempts at Western engagement, particularly noting the period of soft Belarusification from 2014 to 2020 as a response to fears of Russian annexation. The 2020 presidential elections marked a turning point, with mass protests against Lukashenka’s claimed victory leading to severe crackdowns and the erosion of Belarusian sovereignty. The article argues that Belarus’ support for Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine signifies a further decline in its autonomy. It advocates for a strategic approach by the West, bolstering the Belarusian opposition, supporting independent media, and exploiting moments of Russian weakness to restore and secure Belarusian democracy and independence. The author suggests that through comprehensive support for Ukraine and a proactive stance on Belarus, the West can counteract the Kremlin’s influence and prevent Russia's complete absorption of Belarus.