No Turning Back: Trust and European-Russian Energy Relations after War

This article examines the impact that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has had on European-Russian relations in terms of trade in oil and natural gas and the level of dependence on Russian energy supplies across Europe. In addition to trade and dependence indicators, it addresses the impact on trust between European and Russian energy actors through changes in national and EU policies (sanctions), public opinion survey data, and announcements from company and government officials. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was a tipping point and the single most impactful event in Europe-Russia relations in a generation. The usual indicators of trust—such as cooperation, statements, hedging strategies, and public opinion polls—all point to a long-term breakdown of trust. From the Russian side, indicators also point to a loss of trust, not only from political leaders but also widely among the general population. The emerging regional trade dynamics share similarities with a historical case: the breakdown of trust in Europe-Middle East energy relations resulting from the Arab-Israeli War and the OPEC oil embargo of 1973.