Ukraine’s Bilateral Security Assistance Agreements: Implications for a European ‘Reassurance and Deterrence’ Force for Ukraine?

When identifying potential sending states and the mandate of a European multinational stabilization force—and its mission in Ukraine following the cessation of hostilities between Kyiv and Moscow—much will be determined by the nature of any agreed future ceasefire, as well as by the general willingness of European states to support Ukraine’s military and broader national defense objectives. Here, previously signed bilateral security assistance agreements are indicative of political will and commitment. An analysis of these agreements, considering associated political mandates and identified and envisioned military tasks, reveals that they could underpin a future coalition of the willing in a multinational force in Ukraine, in both mission and execution. These agreements also point to its likely membership. Such a deployment could help defend Ukraine and deter Russia, as well as strengthen—and Europeanize—the European conventional pillar of NATO.