Innovation
NATO and Intermediate Force Capabilities: Why Human Effects Matter
Introduction
On February 24, 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine, the international order was impacted sharply and abruptly. Russia’s invasion put the North American Treaty Organization (NATO) on center stage. As a contribution to international security, NATO’s deterrence capabilities take many forms. From nuclear weapons to cyberattacks, to be effective, deterrence must be scalable across a conflict spectrum that includes non-kinetic actions.
Gaming Intermediate Force Capabilities: Strategic Implications of Tactical Decisions
Introduction
Hybrid Threats
In recent years, analysis of the international security environment has increasingly focused on hybrid threat tactics in the grey zone.
How to Assess the Impact of Non-Lethal Weapons
Introduction
Non-lethal weapons (NLWs) represent a diverse set of systems whose common feature is that they are intended to incapacitate rather than kill or destroy. For example, they include laser dazzlers that cause targets to experience intense glare, the Active Denial System (ADS) that emits millimeter-wave energy to cause a temporary heating sensation, pepper balls that irritate eyes and airways, blunt-impact munitions such as rubber bullets and bean bags, and vessel-stopping technologies that entangle propellers.
Developing a NATO Intermediate Force Capabilities Concept
Introduction
What Motivates the Need for an IFC Concept?
Adversaries know NATO’s lethal capabilities and the thresholds for their use. And they exploit this. They avoid direct symmetrical engagements, instead maneuvering below lethal thresholds, pursuing their aims observed but undeterred. Or, they act indirectly through proxies or intermediaries, blending in and engaging only at times and places of their choosing.
Nonlethal Weapons and Intermediate Force: A Necessary Complement to Lethality
Introduction
The phrase nonlethal weapons often brings to mind capabilities such as bean bags, rubber bullets, pepper spray, and electric stun guns. These capabilities are used domestically by law enforcement and by the military, primarily for protection and security missions. Nonlethal weapons (NLW) technology, however, has advanced significantly over the past 20 years.
The 'Grey Zone' and Hybrid Activities
Introduction
The Current Security Environment: Hybrid Threats and the Grey Zone
In recent years, studies of the international security environment have increasingly drawn attention to what is becoming understood as hybrid threats and the grey zone.[1] A recent RAND study defined the grey zone as “an operational space between peace and war, involving coercive actions to change the status quo below a threshold that, in most cases, would prompt a conventional
Twenty-first Century Threats Require Twenty-first Century Deterrence
Introduction
Soon after the defeat of Germany in World War II, the USA and the USSR found themselves in a global struggle for power and influence. In contrast to previous great power competitions, which often led to armed conflict, nuclear weapons changed the risk calculus for both sides. This had four key consequences.
Hybrid Warfare and the Need for Intermediate Force Capabilities
Analyses of the international security environment have increasingly drawn attention to what is often referred to as the gray zone.[1] A RAND study exploring hybrid warfare/gray zone challenges defined this part of the competition continuum as “an operational space between peace and war, involving coercive actions to change the status quo below a threshold that, in most cases, would prompt a conventional military response, often by blurring the line between military and non-military actions and the attrib