Towards a New Role for the European Union in the South Caucasus?

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Abstract:

It has often been argued that the European Union lacks a common long-term strategy for the South Caucasus and instead follows an ad-hoc, reactive approach to regional developments. While other geopolitical players such as Türkiye, Russia, and Iran remain dominant in the region, the European Union has limited options for engagement that align with its interests. Much will depend on how, when, and if the war against Ukraine ends, yet the European Union should already pursue a credible, realistic, and honest approach toward the three South Caucasus states. Avoiding black-and-white thinking about these countries--viewing them as either pro- or anti-Russia--is essential for the European Union, as is a clear understanding of what the European Union can realistically deliver. By applying a "do no harm" approach and focusing on mutually beneficial opportunities, such as supporting the diversification of foreign and economic policies, investing in regional infrastructure and trade projects, or aiding conflict resolution, the European Union can make a meaningful contribution to the region that also aligns with its own interests.