Scenarios for Resource Allocation to Bulgaria’s Defense in the Horizon of 2035

Publication Type:

Journal Article


Journal of Defense Management, Volume 4, Issue 1 (2014)


Defense policy; Foresight-based defense planning; Scenario; Drivers; Defense expenditures


As part of the formulation of a vision for Bulgaria’s force development in the horizon of 2035, the authors were tasked to study the evolution of the economic environment and provide a view on the potential resource allocation to defense. Our study resulted in three scenarios—“Bulgaria in the gray zone of the European economic space,” “Peripheral economy,” and “Catching up economy”—each one plausible under a set of driving factors and conditions. The paper presents the process of scenario design, the scenarios, the respective defense budget levels and the
impact on Bulgaria’s defense and armed forces.