Поиск по статьям, авторам, DOI
24.3.22_Southeast_Asia_RU.pdf
Abstract:

С движением мирового порядка в направлении многополярности Россия активизировала свою политику в странах Глобального Юга, стремясь противостоять западному влиянию. В данной статье рассматриваются стратегии сдерживания и влияния России в Юго-Восточной Азии (ЮВА) – регионе, приобретающем всё большее геополитическое значение. Опираясь на классическую теорию сдерживания, наступательный реализм, динамику мягкой силы и концепцию защиты от рисков, мы проанализируем, как Россия сочетает военное сотрудничество, экономическое взаимодействие, дипломатические инициативы и информационные операции для утверждения своего присутствия. В статье также показано, как страны АСЕАН реагируют на эти стратегии посредством тонких моделей защиты от рисков, отражающих их стремление к стратегической самостоятельности в условиях соперничества великих держав. Используя качественный описательный метод и разнообразную теоретическую базу, исследование освещает как возможности, так и ограничения роли России в Юго-Восточной Азии. Москва использует исторические связи, общие незападные нормы и альтернативные модели управления для развития сотрудничества, но слабые экономические возможности и всё большее сближение с Китаем ограничивают её самостоятельную привлекательность. Полученные результаты вносят вклад в общую дискуссию о региональной безопасности, надёжности сдерживания и изменении баланса сил на Глобальном Юге.

Ключевые слова: Россия сдерживание Юго-Восточная Азия Глобальный Юг стратегическое соперничество АСЕАН
Метки:
Конфликт, Международные организации, Восточная Европа, Юго-Восточная Азия
Поделиться
Creative Commons BY-SA

Article statistics

Тимур, Фаузия Густарина Чемпака. (2025 г.) 2025. «Тень России над Глобальным Югом: сдерживание и влияние в Юго-Восточной Азии». Connections: The Quarterly Journal 24 (4): 143-63. doi:https://doi.org/10.11610/connections.rus.24.3.22.
1285 Views
398 Downloads

Bibliography

“3rd EEAS Report on Foreign Information Manipulation and Interference Threats: Exposing the Architecture of FIMI Operations,” EU External Action Service, March 19, 2025, https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/3rd-eeas-report-foreign-information-manipulation-and-interference-threats-0_en.

“About the ASEAN Defence Ministers’ Meeting Plus,” ASEAN Defence Ministers’ Meeting (ADMM) Website, January 1, 2026, https://admm.asean.org/index.php/about-admm/about-admm-plus.html.

“ASEAN Aiding and Abetting the Myanmar Junta’s Atrocities Through Counter Terrorism Military Training in Russia,” Justice For Myanmar, September 30, 2023, https://www.justiceformyanmar.org/stories/asean-aiding-and-abetting-the-myanmar-juntas-atrocities-through-counter-terrorism-military-training-in-russia.

“Charter of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization,” Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India, June 15, 2001, https://www.mea.gov.in/Portal/LegalTreatiesDoc/000M3130.pdf 

“Joint Statement of ASEAN and Russia Foreign Ministers on the Occasion of the 5th Anniversary of ASEAN-Russia Strategic Partnership, Jakarta, Indonesia, 13 July 2023,” ASEAN Secretariat Website, https://asean.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Joint-Statement-of-ASEAN-and-Russia-Foreign-Ministers-on-the-Occasion-of-the-5th-Anniversary-of-ASEAN-R.pdf.

“Press Release on EAS Foreign Ministers’ Meetings and ASEAN Regional Forum on Security,” The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, July 11, 2025, https://mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/news/2035584/.

“Russia Accounts for 24 % of Africa’s Arms Imports between 2019 and 2023, SIPRI Finds,” Ecofin Agency, March 12, 2024, https://www.ecofinagency.com/public-management/1203-45270-russia-accounts-for-24-of-africa-s-arms-imports-between-2019-and-2023-sipri-finds .

“Russia Funding War in Ukraine via Illegal Gold Mining in Africa – WGC Report,” bne Intellinews, November 20, 2024, https://www.intellinews.com/russia-funding-war-in-ukraine-via-illegal-gold-mining-in-africa-wgc-report-353990/.

“SCO Secretary-General Meets with Ambassadors of ASEAN States to China,” The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, December 18, 2020, https://eng.sectsco.org/20201218/704295.html 

“Southeast Asia in Focus,” Rosatom Newsletter # 284, December 2024, https://rosatomnewsletter.com/2024/12/19/southeast-asia-in-focus-2/.

“The Strategic Influence of the JAPHUS Alliance in the Indo-Pacific,” The Habibie Center, ASEAN Studies, June 27, 2024, https://habibiecenter.or.id/contain-news/pengaruh-strategis-aliansi-japhus-dalam-indo-pasifik/264. – in Indonesian

“UN Security Council Working Methods: The Veto,” Security Council Report, February 13, 2024, https://www.securitycouncilreport.org/un-security-council-working-methods/the-veto.php.

Adamsky, Dmitry, The Russian Way of Deterrence: Strategic Culture, Coercion, and War (Stanford University Press, 2024).

Africa Defense Forum (ADF), “Russia Emerges as Top Weapons Supplier to Sub-Saharan Africa,” ADF Daily News, April 18, 2023, https://adf-magazine.com/2023/04/russia-emerges-as-top-weapons-supplier-to-sub-saharan-africa/.

African Digital Democracy Observatory, “Russia vs the West and How It Plays Out in the Global South,” Medium, June 6, 2024, https://disinfo.africa/russian-vs-the-west-and-how-it-plays-out-in-the-global-south-5abad5541261.

Aktas, Alperen, “Russia, China Conduct over 99% of Trade in National Currencis, Says Official,” Anadolu Agency, November 4, 2025, https://www.aa.com.tr/en/world/russia-china-conduct-over-99-of-trade-in-national-currencies-says-official/3734770.

Asia Pacific Task Force, “ADMM and ADMM-Plus 2024: ASEAN’s Blueprint for a Secure and Resilient Region,” Policy Brief, Beyond the Horizon, November 23, 2024, https://behorizon.org/admm-and-admm-plus-2024-aseans-blueprint-for-a-secure-and-resilient-region/.

Avdaliani, Emil, “Russia’s ASEAN Embrace,” The Interpreter, The Lowy Institute, February 28, 2025, https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/russia-s-asean-embrace.

Badawi, Habib, “Russia’s Strategic Pivot to Africa: Geopolitical Implications in a Multipolar World,” Brazilian Journal of African Studies 9, no. 18 (2024): 10-38, https://doi.org/10.22456/2448-3923.142484.

Batashvili, David, “Why Russia Will Keep Supporting China in the Indo-Pacific,” The Diplomat, March 16, 2024, https://thediplomat.com/2024/03/why-russia-will-keep-supporting-china-in-the-indo-pacific/.

Brar, Angad Singh, “The Russia-China Congruence at the UNSC,” Observer Research Foundation, August 1, 2023, https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/the-russia-china-congruence-at-the-unsc.

Chatterjee, Choi, and Karen Petrone, “The Invasion of Ukraine, the Quest for a Multipolar World, and Russia’s Civilizational Appeal to the Global South,” Slavic Review 83, no. 1 (2024): 1-7, https://doi.org/10.1017/slr.2024.320.

Kuik, Cheng-Chwee, “How Do Weaker States Hedge? Unpacking ASEAN States’ Alignment Behavior Towards China,” Journal of Contemporary China 25, no. 100 (2016): 500-514, https://doi.org/10.1080/10670564.2015.1132714.

Kuik, Cheng-Chwee, “Navigating the Narratives of Indo-Pacific: ‘Rules,’ ‘Like-mindedness,’ and ‘De-risking’ in the Eyes of Southeast Asia,” Georgetown Journal of Asian Affairs 9 (2023): 51-56, https://hdl.handle.net/10822/1085043.

Kuik, Cheng-Chwee, “Southeast Asia Hedges Between Feasibility and Desirability,” East Asia Forum, July 4, 2023, https://eastasiaforum.org/2023/07/04/southeast-asia-hedges-between-feasibility-and-desirability/.

Choudhury, Suvolaxmi Dutta, Tanya Dawar, and Suyesha Dutta, “BRICS Summit Advances Global South Solidarity Despite Diverging Priorities,” Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada, October 29, 2024, https://www.asiapacific.ca/publication/brics-summit-advances-global-south-solidarity-despite.

Clifford, Cayley, and Steven Gruzd, “Russian and African Media: Exercising Soft Power,” South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA) Programme, Policy Insights 125, February 2022, https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/Policy-Insights-125-clifford-gruzd.pdf.

Dugin, Alexander, Eurasian Mission: An Introduction to Neo-Eurasianism (London: Arktos Media, 2014).

Fong, Clara, and Will Merrow, “Where the China-Russia Partnership Is Headed in Seven Charts and Maps,” Council on Foreign Relations, December 12, 2024, https://www.cfr.org/article/where-china-russia-partnership-headed-seven-charts-and-maps.

Freedman, Lawrence, Deterrence (Polity Press, 2004).

Gabriel, Cle-Anne, et al., “Performance Beyond Economic Growth: Alternatives from Growth-Averse Enterprises in the Global South,” Alternatives: Global, Local, Political 44, no. 2-4 (2019): 119-137, https://doi.org/10.1177/0304375419853148.

Global Diplomatic Forum, “ASEAN’s Balancing Act Between the U.S. and China,” Frespectives, February 17, 2025, https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/aseans-balancing-act-between-us-china-global-diplomatic-forum-qr7ze/.

Gorenburg, Dmitry, and Paul Schwartz, “Russia’s Strategy in Southeast Asia,” PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo No. 578, March 2019, https://www.ponarseurasia.org/wp-content/uploads/attachments/Pepm578_Gorenburg-Shwartz_March2019-0.pdf.

Grek, Ivan, “Redefining Power: The Global South’s Game-Changing Alliance with Russia,” Russia.Post, February 2, 2024, https://russiapost.info/global_south/alliance.

Gubin, Andrey, “Can Southeast Asia Avoid Hierarchy?,” Russian International Affairs Council, March 10, 2025, https://russiancouncil.ru/en/analytics-and-comments/analytics/can-southeast-asia-avoid-hierarchy/.

Gubin, Andrey, “The Indo-Pacific Conundrum: Why U.S. Plans Are Destined to Fail?” Russian International Affairs Council, September 14, 2021, https://russiancouncil.ru/en/analytics-and-comments/analytics/the-indo-pacific-conundrum-why-u-s-plans-are-destined-to-fail/.

Hai, Nguyen Ba, and Kazushige Kobayashi, “Vietnam-Russia Relations After 2022: Exploring the Challenges and Opportunities of ‘Bamboo Diplomacy’ in A Multipolar World,” The Russia Program, June 24, 2024, https://therussiaprogram.org/vietnam-russia.

Hassan, Mohamed Jawhar, “The ASEAN Regional Forum: Challenges and Prospects,” The Pacific Forum, Issues & Insights 21, Working Paper 8, June 2021, https://pacforum.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/issuesinsights_Vol21WP8.pdf.

Haug, Sebastian, Jacqueline Braveboy-Wagner, and Günther Maihold, “The ‘Global South’ in the Study of World Politics: Examining a Meta Category,” Third World Quarterly 42, no. 9 (2021): 1923-1944, https://doi.org/10.1080/01436597.2021.1948831.

Kartikaningrum, Pratiwi Ika, F. G. Cempaka Timur, and Ahmad G. Dohamid, “Strategic Communication and Propaganda: The Role of Media in the Dynamics of the War of Ideas in Asymmetric Conflict,” Aurelia: Jurnal Penelitian dan Pengabdian Masyarakat Indonesia 4, no. 1 (2025): 1545-1553, https://rayyanjurnal.com/index.php/aurelia/article/view/5297. – in Indonesian

Kaunang, Elfira Sylviani, et al., “Russia’s National Security Policy in Facing the Dynamics of Threats and Global Challenges: A Critical Analysis,” Formosa Journal of Science and Technology 3, no. 9 (2024): 2169-2190, https://doi.org/10.55927/fjst.v3i9.10301.

Khemara, Sok, “Russia Wades into South China Sea Dispute with ASEAN Accord,” VOA East Asia, May 18, 2016, https://www.voanews.com/a/russia-asean-south-china-sea/3336191.html.

Klomegah, Kester Kenn, “BRICS+: Behind Global South’s Future Development,” Modern Diplomacy, October 1, 2024,https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2024/10/01/brics-behind-global-souths-future-development/.

Koldunova, Ekaterina, “Russia-ASEAN: Limits and Opportunities of Economic Partnership,” Valdai Discussion Club, August 29, 2022, https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/russia-asean-limits-and-opportunities/.

Komin, Mikhail, “Deconstructing Russia’s Anti-colonial Posturing in the Global South,” European Council on Foreign Relations, November 27, 2024, https://ecfr.eu/article/deconstructing-russias-anti-colonial-posturing-in-the-global-south/.

Kurlantzick, Joshua, “Russia’s Influence in Southeast Asia Is Fading,” Council on Foreign Relations, September 25, 2023, https://www.cfr.org/article/russias-influence-southeast-asia-fading.

Lin, Joanne, “Advancing the ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific Beyond Indonesia’s Chairmanship,” Fulcrum (ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute), February 16, 2024, https://fulcrum.sg/advancing-the-asean-outlook-on-the-indo-pacific-beyond-indonesias-chairmanship/.

Machaffie, James P., “Russian-Chinese Cooperation at the United Nations Security Council: Costly Signalling and Trust Building in the Strategic Partnership,” China Report 58, no. 4 (2022): 431-447, https://doi.org/10.1177/00094455221128349.

Matveev, Igor, “De-Dollarisation in Trade Between Russia and the Arab World,” Valdai Discussion Club, August 2, 2023, https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/de-dollarisation-in-trade-between-russia/.

Mearsheimer, John J., The Tragedy of Great Power Politics (W.W. Norton & Company, 2001).

Menon, Saahil, “What Is Driving Closer Cooperation between Russia and Myanmar?” New Eastern Europe, April 22, 2025, https://neweasterneurope.eu/2025/04/22/what-is-driving-closer-cooperation-between-russia-and-myanmar/.

Mohamedou, Kemal, “The Wagner Group, Russia’s Foreign Policy and Sub-Saharan Africa,” Geneva Paper 32/24, Geneva Centre for Security Policy, March 2024, March 6, 2024, https://www.gcsp.ch/sites/default/files/2024-12/geneva-paper-32-2024.pdf.

Morgan, Patrick M., Deterrence Now, Cambridge Studies in International Relations, vol. 89 (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2003).

Myers, Lucas, and Dan White, “Russia’s Complicated Strategic Frontiers in Southeast Asia,” The Diplomat, April 4, 2025, https://thediplomat.com/2025/04/russias-complicated-strategic-frontiers-in-southeast-asia/.

Notte, Hanna, “OP#58: Dangerous Decline: Russia’s Military and Security Influence in the Global South and the Implications for the United States,” Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey, November 17, 2023, https://nonproliferation.org/op58-dangerous-decline-russias-military-and-security-influence-in-the-global-south-and-the-implications-for-the-united-states/.

Nye, Joseph S., “Realism About Foreign-Policy Realism,” Project Syndicate, February 2, 2022, https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/ukraine-and-limits-of-foreign-policy-realism-by-joseph-s-nye-2022-02.

Nye, Joseph S., Soft Power: The Means to Success in World Politics (Public Affairs, 2005).

Nye, Joseph S., The Future of Power (Public Affairs, 2011).

Pramod, Gayathri, “Global South in Russia & China’s Grip,” Global Strategic & Defense News, February 27, 2025, https://gsdn.live/global-south-in-russia-chinas-grip/.

Samrai, Yasmin, “The Geopolitical Blame Game: Russia’s Strategy of Weaponizing Grievances against the West,” Thesis (Center for International Security and Cooperation, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Stanford University, May 2021), https://purl.stanford.edu/nf523cr9725.

Steinsson, Sverrir, “John Mearsheimer’s Theory of Offensive Realism and the Rise of China,” E-International Relations, March 6, 2014, https://www.e-ir.info/pdf/47402.

Storey, Ian, “Russia in Southeast Asia: Falling Influence Despite Being Largest Arms Seller,” ThinkChina, March 31, 2021, https://www.thinkchina.sg/politics/russia-southeast-asia-falling-influence-despite-being-largest-arms-seller.

Storey, Ian, Putin's Russia and Southeast Asia: The Kremlin’s Pivot to Asia and the Impact of the Russia-Ukraine War (ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute Publishing, 2024), https://doi.org/10.1355/9789815306484.

Stronski, Paul, and Richard Sokolsky, “Multipolarity in Practice: Understanding Russia’s Engagement with Regional Institutions,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, January 8, 2020, https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2020/01/multipolarity-in-practice-understanding-russias-engagement-with-regional-institutions.

Verma, Nidhi, “Exclusive: Russia Seeking Oil Payments from India in Dirhams,” Reuters, July 19, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/exclusive-russia-seeking-oil-payments-india-dirhams-sources-document-2022-07-18/ 

Waltz, Kenneth N., “Nuclear Myths and Political Realities,” American Political Science Review 84, no. 3 (1990): 731-745.

Waltz, Kenneth N., “Structural Realism after the Cold War,” International Security 25, no. 1 (2000): 5-41, https://doi.org/10.1162/016228800560372.

Zadeh, John, “Burkina Faso Grants Strategic Gold Mining Lease to Russia’s Nordgold,” Discovery Alert, April 26, 2025, https://discoveryalert.com.au/news/burkina-faso-mining-lease-nordgold-2025-economic-impact/.

Zadorożna, Marlena, and Marin Butuc, “Russian Disinformation in Moldova and Poland in the Context of the Russo-Ukrainian War,” Security and Defence Quarterly 46, no. 2 (2024): 47-65, https://doi.org/10.35467/sdq/189686.

Zaręba, Michał, “Role of Military Cooperation in Vietnam-Russia Relations,” Eastern Review 11, no. 2 (2024): 51-66, https://doi.org/10.18778/1427-9657.11.16.

Zhang, Jie, “Rebuilding Strategic Autonomy: ASEAN’s Response to US-China Strategic Competition,” China International Strategy Review 5 (2023): 73-89, https://doi.org/10.1007/s42533-023-00128-3.

Tемы