Поиск по статьям, авторам, DOI
24.3.63_Border_Management_RUS.pdf
Abstract:

Исходя из всё более сложного характера нелинейной войны и постепенного изменения подхода Европы к безопасности, статья призывает к выработке комплексной концепции сдерживания для Европейского Союза. Учитывая рост агрессивности в так называемой «серой зоне», в статье отмечена необходимость для Европейского Союза сформулировать внутреннюю концепцию сдерживания на основе предотвращения. Хотя в последних политических заявлениях на уровне ЕС признаётся такая необходимость, им по-прежнему не хватает стратегической и оперативной ясности. В качестве иллюстрации в статье рассмотрена применимость концепции комплексной охраны границ ЕС поколения 3+ 2019 года к комплексному сдерживанию, особенно на северо-восточных внешних границах, которые также служат суверенными границами ряда стран НАТО. В статье анализируется взаимодействие и очерчены потенциальные пути сближения военного сдерживания и сдерживания на основе «мягкой силы» ЕС. В заключение в статье предлагается разработать особую стратегию сдерживания ЕС, выходящую за рамки логики «самосдерживания». Предложенный подход ставит во главу угла солидарность, образ мышления и стойкость общества как основные компоненты безопасности общего северо-восточного фланга ЕС и НАТО – критически важной границы между разными системами ценностей.

Ключевые слова: нелинейная война комплексное сдерживание комплексная охрана границ ЕС принцип солидарности
Метки:
Конфликт, Оборонная политика и планирование, Безопасность, Восточная Европа, Юго-Восточная Европа
Поделиться
Creative Commons BY-SA

Article statistics

Тиликс, Райтис. (2025 г.) 2025. «Комплексная охрана границ как потенциальная мера сдерживания на северо-восточном фланге НАТО и Шенгенской зоны». Connections: The Quarterly Journal 24 (4): 98-120. doi:https://doi.org/10.11610/connections.rus.24.3.63.
1242 Views
428 Downloads

Bibliography

“Council Decision (EU) 2022/1500 of 9 September 2022 on the Suspension in Whole of the Application of the Agreement between the European Community and the Russian Federation on the Facilitation of the Issuance of Visas to the Citizens of the European Union and the Russian Federation,” Official Journal of the European Union LI 234/1, September 9, 2022, https://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/dec/2022/1500/oj/eng.

“National Security Strategy of the United States of America,” The White House, November 2025, https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/2025-National-Security-Strategy.pdf.

“NATO 2022 Strategic Concept,” updated March 3, 2023, https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_210907.htm.

“Presidency Conclusions: European Council meeting in Laeken, 14 and 15 December 2001,” https://www.consilium.europa.eu/media/20950/68827.pdf.

“Regulation (EC) No 810/2009 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 13 July 2009 Establishing a Community Code on Visas (Visa Code),” Official Journal of the European Union 243, September 15, 2009, https://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/reg/2009/810/oj/eng.

“Regulation (EU) 2016/1624 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 14 September 2016 on the European Border and Coast Guard and Amending Regulation (EU) 2016/399 of the European Parliament and of the Council and Repealing Regulation (EC) No 863/2007 of the European Parliament and of the Council, Council Regulation (EC) No 2007/2004 and Council Decision 2005/267/EC (end of validity 31/12/2020),” Official Journal of the European Union L 251/1, September 16, 2016, https://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/reg/2016/1624/oj/eng.

“Regulation (EU) 2016/399 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 9 March 2016 on a Union Code on the Rules Governing the Movement of Persons across Borders (Schengen Borders Code) (Codification),” Official Journal of the European Union L 77, March 23, 2016, https://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/reg/2016/399/oj/eng.

 “Regulation (EU) 2019/1896 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 13 November 2019 on the European Border and Coast Guard and Repealing Regulations (EU) No 1052/2013 and (EU) 2016/1624,” Official Journal of the European Union L 295/1, November 14, 2019, https://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/reg/2019/1896/oj/eng.

“Robust. Resilient. Sustainable: Integrated Security for Germany – National Security Strategy,” The Federal Government of Germany, June 2023, https://www.nationalesicherheitsstrategie.de/National-Security-Strategy-EN.pdf. 

“Short-stay Visas Issued by Schengen Countries,” European Commission, December 2, 2025, https://home-affairs.ec.europa.eu/policies/schengen/visa-policy/short-stay-visas-issued-schengen-countries_en.

“Tampere European Council 15 and 16 October 1999 Presidency Conclusions,” European Parliament, https://www.europarl.europa.eu/summits/tam_en.htm.

Adamsky, Dmitry, “Quo Vadis, Russian Deterrence? Strategic Culture and Coercion Innovations,” International Security 49, no. 3 (2025): 50-83, https://doi.org/10.1162/isec_a_00502.

Anghel, Veronica, “Why the EU Is a Geopolitical Power: Wartime Enlargement, Integration, and Reform,” Journal of European Public Policy 32, no. 12 (2025): 2862-2885, https://doi.org/10.1080/13501763.2025.2558974. 

Bajarūnas, Eitvydas, “Addressing Hybrid Threats: Priorities for the EU in 2020 and Beyond,” European View 19, no. 1 (2020): 62-70, https://doi.org/10.1177/1781685820912041.

Benner, Thorsten, “Why Germany Needs to Invest More to Preserve the Status Quo in the Taiwan Strait,” Internationale Politik Quarterly, March 16, 2022, https://ip-quarterly.com/en/why-germany-needs-invest-more-preserve-status-quo-taiwan-strait.

Bernat, Pawel, Viacheslav Semenenko, Pavlo Openko, and Daniel Michalski, “Russian Proxy Use in the Hybrid War against Ukraine before the 2022 Invasion”, in Proxy Wars from a Global Perspective: Non-State Actors and Armed Conflicts, ed. Pawel Bernat, Cüneyt Gürer, and Cyprian Aleksander Kozera (New York, NY: Bloomsbury Academic, 2025): 61-76.

Bērziņš, Jānis, “Russian New Generation Warfare Is Not Hybrid Warfare,” in The War in Ukraine: Lessons for Europe, ed. Artis Pabriks and Andis Kudors (Riga: University of Latvia Press, 2015): 40-51, https://appc.lv/en/petijumi/the-war-in-ukraine-lessons-for-europe/.

Braw, Elisabeth, The Defender’s Dilemma: Identifying and Deterring Gray-Zone Aggression (Washington, D.C.: American Enterprise Institute, 2021), https://ecipe.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Braw_Defenders-Dilemma_Finalized.pdf.

Commission of the European Communities, “Towards Integrated Management of the External Borders of the Member States of the European Union,” Communication from the Commission to the Council and the European Parliament, COM(2002) 233 final, May 7, 2002, https://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=COM:2002:0233:FIN:EN:PDF.

Council of the European Union, “A Strategic Compass for Security and Defence: For a European Union That Protects Its Citizens, Values and Interests and Contributes to International Peace and Security,” Doc. No. 7371/22, March 21, 2022, https://data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/ST-7371-2022-INIT/en/pdf.

Council of the European Union, “Council Conclusions on a Framework for a Coordinated EU Response to Hybrid Campaigns,” Press Release, June 21, 2022, https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2022/06/21/council-conclusions-on-a-framework-for-a-coordinated-eu-response-to-hybrid-campaigns/.

Council of the European Union, “EU Schengen Catalogue. External Borders Control, Removal and Readmission: Recommendations and Best Practices,” February 2002, https://www.consilium.europa.eu/media/31011/catalogue-en.pdf.

Council of the European Union, “Justice and Home Affairs, 2768th Council Meeting, Brussels, 4–5 December 2006, Brussels,” Press Release, Doc. 15801/06 (Presse 341), https://data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/ST%2015801%202006%20INIT/EN/pdf.

Council of the European Union, “Updated EU Schengen Catalogue on External Borders Control, Return and Readmission,” Note from the Drafting Group for updating of Schengen catalogue on External borders control, Return and readmission to Schengen Evaluation Working Party, 7864/09, Brussels, March 19, 2009, https://data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/ST-7864-2009-INIT/en/pdf.

Cox, Dan G., Thomas Bruscino, and Alex Ryan, “Why Hybrid Warfare Is Tactics Not Strategy: A Rejoinder to ‘Future Threats and Strategic Thinking’,” Military Strategy Magazine 2, no. 2 (2012): 25-29, https://doi.org/10.64148/msm.v2i2.5.

Dams, Ties, “Taiwan and a European Doctrine of Deterrence: A Matter of Time,” Clingendael Institute, March 21, 2024, https://www.clingendael.org/publication/taiwan-and-european-doctrine-deterrence. 

Driedger, Jonas J., “Did Germany Contribute to Deterrence Failure against Russia in Early 2022?” Central European Journal of International and Security Studies 16, no. 3 (2022): 152-171, https://doi.org/10.51870/TLXC9266.

Echevarria, Antulio J., “Deterring War without Threatening War: Rehabilitating the West’s Risk-averse Approach to Deterrence,” Military Strategy Magazine 9, no. 2 (2024): 4-11, https://doi.org/10.64148/msm.v9i2.1.

European Commission, “2025 Strategic Foresight Report – Resilience 2.0: Empowering the EU to Thrive Amid Turbulence and Uncertainty,” Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament and the Council COM (2025) 484 final, September 9, 2025, https://commission.europa.eu/publications/strategic-foresight-report-2025_en.

European Commission, “Commission Implementing Decision of 6.11.2025 Establishing Adapted Rules on the Issuing of Multiple-entry Visas to Russian Nationals Residing in the Russian Federation and Applying in the Russian Federation for Short-stay Visas,” C(2025) 7552 final, https://home-affairs.ec.europa.eu/document/download/409a8179-9885-49f8-ab40-9c1a07b1f581_en.

European Commission, “EU Preparedness Union Strategy to Prevent and React to Emerging Threats and Crises,” JOIN(2025) 130 final (with Annex), March 16, 2025, Brussels, https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_25_856.

European Commission, “Increasing Resilience and Bolstering Capabilities to Address Hybrid Threats,” Joint Communication to the European Parliament, the European Council and the Council, JOIN(2018) 16 final, June 13, 2018., Brussels, 8, https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A52018JC0016.

European Commission, “Joint White Paper for European Defence Readiness 2030,” JOIN(2025) 120 final, March 19, 2025, Brussels, Point 4, https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=celex:52025JC0120.

European Commission, High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, “Joint Framework on Countering Hybrid Threats: A European Union Response,” Joint Communication to the European Parliament and the Council, JOIN (2016) 18 final, April 6, 2016, Brussels, https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:52016JC0018.

Fakhry, Alia, András Rácz, and Roderick Parkes, “Migration Instrumentalization: A Taxonomy for an Efficient Response,” Hybrid CoE Working Paper 14, March 2022, https://www.hybridcoe.fi/publications/hybrid-coe-working-paper-14-migration-instrumentalization-a-taxonomy-for-an-efficient-response/.

Ferreira-Pereira, Laura C., and Arthur John Richard Groom, “‘Mutual Solidarity within the EU Common Foreign and Security Policy: What Is the Name of the Game?” International Politics 47, no. 6 (2010): 596-616, https://doi.org/10.1057/ip.2010.29.

Finnish Government, “Security Strategy for Society: Government Resolution,” Security Committee, Ministry of Defence, January 16, 2025, http://urn.fi/URN:ISBN:978-952-383-817-8. 

Fjäder, Christian, and Johan Schalin, “Building Resilience to Hybrid Threats: Best Practices in the Nordics,” Hybrid CoE Working Paper 31, May 2024, https://www.hybridcoe.fi/publications/hybrid-coe-working-paper-31-building-resilience-to-hybrid-threats-best-practices-in-the-nordics/. 

Galeotti, Mark, The Weaponisation of Everything: A Field Guide to the New Way of War (Yale University Press, 2022).

Giles, Keir, Russia’s War on Everybody: And What It Means for You (London: Bloomsbury Publishing, 2024). 

Goldhamer, Herbert, “The Soviet Union in a Period of Strategic Parity,” RAND Report R-889-PR (Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 1971), https://www.rand.org/pubs/reports/R0889.html.

Greenhill, Kelly M., “Asymmetric Advantage: Weaponizing People as Nonmilitary Instruments of Cross-Domain Coercion,” in Cross-Domain Deterrence: Strategy in an Era of Complexity, ed. Eric Gartzke and Jon R. Lindsay (Oxford University Press, 2019), 259-289, https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780190908645.003.0012.

Greenhill, Kelly M., “Strategic Engineered Migration as a Weapon of War,” Civil Wars 10, no. 1 (2008): 6-21, https://doi.org/10.1080/13698240701835425. 

Harris, Peter, and Jared M. McKinney, “Strategic Clarity or Calamity? Competing Logics of Deterrence in the Taiwan Strait,” International Affairs 100, no. 3 (2024): 1171-1187, https://doi.org/10.1093/ia/iiae071. 

Hassner, Pierre, “The Changing Context of European Security,” Journal of Common Market Studies 7, no. 1 (1968): 1-21, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-5965.1968.tb00205.x.

Henschke, Adam, “Foundational Moral and Political Values,” in Cognitive Warfare: Grey Matters in Contemporary Political Conflict (London: Routledge, 2024): 199-229, https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003126959-12. 

Ho, Monika Sie Dhian, and Myrthe Wijnkoop, “The Instrumentalization of Migration: A Geopolitical Perspective and Toolbox,” Report, Netherlands Institute of International Relations Clingendael, December 2022, https://www.clingendael.org/sites/default/files/2022-12/Report_The_instrumentalization_of_migration.pdf. 

International Crisis Group, “Ukraine and Beyond: Shaping Europe’s Security Future,” Europe Report No. 272, February 1, 2025, 33, https://www.crisisgroup.org/sites/default/files/2025-02/272-europe-security-future_1.pdf.

Jones, Seth G., “Russia’s Shadow War Against the West,” CSIS Brief, Center for Strategic and International Studies, March 18, 2025, https://www.csis.org/analysis/russias-shadow-war-against-west. 

Kalniete, Sandra, and Tomass Pildegovičs, “Strengthening the EU’s Resilience to Hybrid Threats,” European View 20, no. 1 (2021): 23-33, https://doi.org/10.1177/17816858211004648.

Kūle, Maija, “The Age of Will: Introduction Into the Theme,” Ideology and Politics Journal 1, no. 27 (2025): 4-19, https://doi.org/10.36169/2227-6068.2025.01.00014.

Lee, Scott, Andrew Michta, Peter Jones, and Lisa Bembenick, “NATO 2027: European Leadership Will Be Key to Deterrence Against Russia,” MITRE / Atlantic Council, May 15, 2025, 14, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/NATO-2027-European-leadership-will-be-key-to-deterrence-against-Russia.pdf.

Lupovici, Amir, “The Emerging Fourth Wave of Deterrence Theory – Toward a New Research Agenda,” International Studies Quarterly 54, no. 3 (2010): 705-732, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2478.2010.00606.x.

Marx, Karl, Achtzehnte Brumaire des Louis Bonaparte (original text in German), 3. Auflage (Hamburg: O. Meissner, 1885), https://catalog.hathitrust.org/Record/006032885. 

Maschmeyer, Lennart, Subversion: From Covert Operations to Cyber Conflict (Oxford University Press, 2024), https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780197745854.001.0001. 

Maynes, Charles, “Independent Study Suggests Russian Support for the War in Ukraine Is Complicated,” NPR Media, September 24, 2024, https://www.npr.org/2024/09/24/nx-s1-5123628/independent-study-suggests-russian-support-for-the-war-in-ukraine-is-complicated.

Mazarr, Michael J., “Understanding Deterrence,” Expert Insight PE-295-RC (Santa Monica: RAND, 2018), https://doi.org/10.7249/PE295.

McGlynn, Jade, Russia’s War (Polity Press, 2023).

Morgan, Patrick M., Deterrence Now (Cambridge University Press, 2003). 

Morgan, Patrick M., Deterrence: A Conceptual Analysis, Sage Library of Social Research Vol. 40 (Beverly Hills, CA: Sage Publications, 1977).

Mortera-Martínez, Camino, “Is There a Future for the EU’s Area of Freedom, Security and Justice? A Plan to Build Back Trusts,” Policy Brief, Centre for European Reform, January 26, 2022, https://www.cer.eu/publications/archive/policy-brief/2022/there-future-eus-area-freedom-security-and-justice.

Niinistö, Sauli, Safer Together: Strengthening Europe’s Civilian and Military Preparedness and Readiness, European Commission, October 30, 2024, https://commission.europa.eu/topics/defence/safer-together-path-towards-fully-prepared-union_en.

Osinga, Frans, and Tim Sweijs, eds., NL ARMS Netherlands Annual Review of Military Studies 2020: Deterrence in the 21st Century – Insights from Theory and Practice (The Hague: T.M.C. Asser, 2021), https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-6265-419-8.

Pabriks, Artis, and Andis Kudors, eds., The War in Ukraine: Lessons for Europe (Riga: University of Latvia Press, 2015)

Palmertz, Björn, Mikael Weissmann, Niklas Nilsson, Johan Engvall, “Building Resilience and Psychological Defence: An analytical framework for countering hybrid threats and foreign influence and interference,” Working Paper (Psychological Defence Research Institute, Lund University, 2024). 

Pamment, James, and Elsa Isaksson, “Psychological Defence: Concepts and principles for the 2020s,” MPF Report Series 6 (Psychological Defence Research Institute, Lund University, 2024), https://mpf.se/psychological-defence-agency/publications.

Paul, Thazha V., “Complex Deterrence: An Introduction,” in Complex Deterrence: Strategy in the Global Age, ed. Thazha V. Paul, Patrick M. Morgan, and James J. Wirtz (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2009), https://doi.org/10.7208/chicago/9780226650043.001.0001.

Petraeus, David, and Andrew Roberts, Conflict: The Evolution of Warfare from 1945 to Ukraine (London: Harper Collins Publishers, 2023).

Praks, Henrik, “Russia’s Hybrid Threat Tactics against the Baltic Sea Region: From Disinformation to Sabotage,” Hybrid CoE Working Paper 32, May 2024, https://www.hybridcoe.fi/publications/hybrid-coe-working-paper-32-russias-hybrid-threat-tactics-against-the-baltic-sea-region-from-disinformation-to-sabotage/.

Radin, Andrew, Alyssa Demus, and Krystyna Marcinek, “Understanding Russian Subversion: Patterns, Threats, and Responses,” Expert Insights, RAND, February 18, 2020, https://doi.org/10.7249/PE331.

Rasche, Lucas, “The Instrumentalisation of Migration: How Should the EU Respond?” Policy Paper, Herti School, Jacques Delors Centre, December 16, 2022, https://www.delorscentre.eu/en/publications/the-instrumentalisation-of-migration.

Raufoglu, Alex, “‘Swap Mush for Steel’ – Lithuania Urges NATO to End Era of ‘Self-Deterrence’ Against Russia,” interview with Lithuania’s Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys, Kyiv Post, November 11, 2025, https://www.kyivpost.com/post/63992.

Reczkowski, Robert, and Andrzej Lis, “Cognitive Warfare: What Is Our Actual Knowledge and How to Build State Resilience?” Security Theory and Practice 3 (XLVIII) (2022): 51-61, https://doi.org/10.48269/2451-0718-btip-2022-3-003.

Reznikova, Olga, and Oleksandr Korniievskyi, “Resilience of the Ukrainian Society in Wartime: Components and Influencing Factors,” Eastern Journal of European Studies 15, no. 1 (2024): 113-133, https://doi.org/10.47743/ejes-2024-0105. 

RFE / RL (USAGM), “Without Morals, but with Spirituality: How the Russian Government Is Eroding People’s Moral Compass,” Current Time, July 23, 2025, https://www.currenttime.tv/a/bez-morali-no-s-duhovnymi-tsennostyami-kak-vlast-v-rossii-lishaet-nravstvennye-orientiry-lyudey/33481051.html. – in Russian

Roberts, Peter, and Andrew Hardie, “The Validity of Deterrence in the Twenty-First Century,” Occasional Paper, Royal United Services Institute, August 2015, https://static.rusi.org/201508_op_the_validity_of_deterrence.pdf.

Salonius-Pasternak, Charly, “Finland’s Ambiguous Deterrence: Mixing Deterrence by Denial with Ambiguous Extended Deterrence,” in Deterring Russia in Europe: Defence Strategies for Neighbouring States, ed. Nora Vanaga, Toms Rostoks (Routledge, 2018): 110-127.

Snegovaya, Maria, “The Reluctant Consensus: War and Russia’s Public Opinion,” Atlantic Council, December 17, 2024, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/russia-tomorrow/reluctant-consensus-war-and-russias-public-opinion/.

Sperling, James, “The European Union and the Grand Security Strategy for Post-Westphalian Governance,” in EU Security Strategies: Extending the EU System of Security Governance, ed. Spyros Economides and James Sperling (London: Routledge, 2017), https://doi.org/10.4324/9781315455297.

Statista, “Russia: Opinion on Military Actions in Ukraine Monthly 2022–2025,” June 7, 2025, https://www.statista.com/statistics/1306904/russia-public-opinion-on-military-action-in-ukraine/.

Sweijs, Tim, Samuel Zilincik, Frank Bekkers, and Rick Meessen, “A Framework for Cross-Domain Strategies Against Hybrid Threats,” The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies, January 12, 2021, https://hcss.nl/report/a-framework-for-cross-domain-strategies-against-hybrid-threats/.

Teitelbaum, Michael S., “Immigration, Refugees, and Foreign Policy,” International Organization 38, no. 3 (1984): 429-450, https://doi.org/10.1017/S0020818300026801.

Vachudova, Milada Anna, and Nadiia Koval, “Ukraine’s Challenge to Europe: The EU as an Ethical and Powerful Geopolitical Actor,” Ethics & International Affairs 38, no. 3 (2024): 308-332, https://doi.org/10.1017/S0892679424000364.

Van Ham, Peter, European Integration and the Postmodern Condition: Governance, Democracy, Identity (London: Routledge, 2001), 15.

von der Leyen, Ursula, “Europe’s Choice: Political Guidelines for the Next European Commission 2024–2029,” European Commission, July 18, 2024, Strasbourg, 15, https://commission.europa.eu/document/download/e6cd4328-673c-4e7a-8683-f63ffb2cf648_en.

Vuori, Juha A., “Deterring Things With Words: Deterrence as a Speech Act,” New Perspectives 24, no. 2 (2016): 23-50, https://doi.org/10.1177/2336825X1602400203.

Weiner, Myron, “Bad Neighbors, Bad Neighborhoods: An Inquiry into the Causes of Refugee Flows,” International Security 21, no. 1 (1996): 5-42, https://doi.org/10.2307/2539107. 

Wigell, Mikael, Harri Mikkola, and Tapio Juntunen, “Best Practices in the Whole-of-Society Approach in Countering Hybrid Threats,” European Parliament, May 6, 2021, https://www.europarl.europa.eu/thinktank/en/document/EXPO_STU(2021)653632.

Tемы