Fueling Instability: European Foreign and Energy Policies in the Wider Black Sea Area

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Abstract:

The European market relies on various gas and oil pipelines, energy projects, and undersea cables in and around the Black Sea. Relations with key regional actors strongly impact Europe’s energy security. Consequently, the EU's Common Foreign and Security Policy plays a significant role in the Black Sea regional security, as EU partnerships and investments can fuel rivalries among competing actors. Since the first attempts in 2009 to bring the Black Sea region closer to European values and markets through the Eastern Partnership Policy, the European Union has sought to engage states like Azerbaijan and Georgia to secure energy transit to Western Europe. The Russo-Ukrainian war has heightened tensions between key players in the region, while Russia’s gas embargo has exacerbated the shortage of energy resources in Europe. In July 2022, the European Union reached an agreement with Azerbaijan to increase gas exports. Fourteen months later, Azerbaijan launched a military operation in Nagorno-Karabakh, reigniting the 2020 border conflict with Armenia, taking full control of the entire territory and further altering the regional dynamics. This article examines how the war in Ukraine has alienated most Black Sea states from Russia after it cut off its energy exports to EU and NATO countries, leading them to source energy from states in the wider Black Sea region. It will also discuss the ensuing policy vacuum and the opportunities and challenges it creates for the European Union and the region.