Scenario Space for Alternative Futures of Security Research

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Abstract:

FOCUS (“Foresight Security Scenarios – Mapping Research to a Comprehensive Approach to Exogenous EU Roles”) aims namely to define the most plausible threat scenarios that affect the “borderline” between the EU’s external and internal dimensions to security. This article presents scenarios about alternative futures of security research to support a comprehensive approach of the “EU 2035” as a civil security provider. Three scenarios were selected as context scenarios for alternative futures of security research afterwards they have been lined up with drivers identified in a matrix procedure. From these three context scenarios six alternative futures for security research were evaluated using the portfolio-cluster-method. The weighting was done from a dual and interdependent perspective: a) nation/ member state vs. EU-level/international approach to civil security and b) position of the scenario on the continuum of internal/external security. Finally, the article introduces each scenario for alternative future of security research in detail.