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Towards Europe 2035: In Search of the Archimedean Screw. FOCUS in Perspective

2912_Nerlich_Europe_2035.pdf

Publication Type:

Journal Article

Authors:

Uwe Nelrich

Source:

Information & Security: An International Journal, Volume 29, Issue 2, p.161-183 (2013)

Keywords:

Alternative futures, context scenarios, global trends, institutional Europe, peer countries, Security foresight

Abstract:

<p>Approaches and results from the FOCUS project centred on the planning of security research in the 2035 time frame to support foresighted EU security missions. In a follow-up, they could be carried further to help provide a framework for analyzing long-term trends and dynamic interactions in a global environment undergoing tectonic changes, reaching beyond the FOCUS mission to explore new contexts of civil security research in support of possible future EU mission scenarios. European developments are in large part driven by challenging global developments, reaching beyond external risks and threats to which the EU needs to respond. This article thus explores the complementarity of the FOCUS framework and the concurrent fifth NIC Report &ldquo;Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds&rdquo; of the US National Intelligence Council (NIC) in search of a framework for assessing the impact of global dynamics on the inner dynamics of global players, with the EU as a special case.</p>