Поиск по статьям, авторам, DOI
24.2.02_Ukraine_Neutrality-RU.pdf
Abstract:

Наша статья – это попытка осмыслить нейтралитет на примере послевоенных Финляндии и Австрии, используя опыт этих стран для анализа целесообразности нейтралитета как послевоенного пути Украины. Историческая оценка характеристик нейтралитета, навязанного послевоенным Финляндии и Австрии, позволяет проанализировать российское видение нейтралитета. Опыт отдельных государств после конфликтов также может служить моделью для нейтральной послевоенной Украины. Украина, обладающая достаточной военной мощью для сдерживания российской агрессии, могла бы существовать как нейтральное государство. Однако необходимость сохранения Украиной ориентации на Запад для противодействия российской агрессии усложняет перспективу украинского нейтралитета как условия прекращения огня. Для того, чтобы перейти от прекращения огня к устойчивому, не навязанному извне нейтралитету, Украине необходимы гарантии безопасности. Невозможность для Украины обрести легитимный нейтральный статус сразу по окончании боевых действий означает, что нейтральная Украина остаётся лишь благим пожеланием – с одним важным отличием: если для Украины нейтралитет может открыть путь к мирному государственному строительству, то для Российской Федерации её нейтралитет станет механизмом расчленения украинского национального государства.

Ключевые слова: Украина Россия Финляндия Австрия Вторая мировая война финляндизация великие державы
Метки:
Конфликт, Международное право, Международные отношения, Восточная Европа
Поделиться
Creative Commons BY-SA

Article statistics

Некстон, Марк. (2025 г.) 2025. «Поможет ли нейтралитет восстановить Украину?». Connections: The Quarterly Journal 24 (2): 81-100. doi:https://doi.org/10.11610/connections.rus.24.2.02.
1117 Views
623 Downloads

Bibliography

“Ukraine President Signs Constitutional Amendment on NATO, EU Membership,” Radio Free Europe – Radio Liberty, February 19, 2019, https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-president-signs-constitutional-amendment-on-nato-eu-membership/29779430.html/.

Ålander, Minna, “Why Finland Thinks Finlandization Is a Bad Idea for Ukraine,” The Atlantic Council, December 12, 2024, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/why-finland-thinks-finlandization-is-a-bad-idea-for-ukraine/.

Allison, Roy, “Russia, Ukraine and State Survival through Neutrality,” International Affairs 98, no. 6 (November 2022): 1849-1872, https://doi.org/10.1093/ia/iiac230.

Baker, Sinéad, “Putin Denies Planning to Revive the Russian Empire after Declaring that Ukraine Is Not a Real Country and Sending Troops There,” Business Insider, February 22, 2022, https://www.businessinsider.com/putin-denies-reviving-russian-empire-says-ukraine-not-real-country-2022-2.

Bischof, Günter, “Allied Plans and Policies for the Occupation of Austria, 1938-1955,” in Austria in the Twentieth Century, ed. Rolf Steininger, Günter Bischof, and Michael Gehler (New Brunswick and London: Transaction Publishers, 2002).

Bohlen, Charles E., and Geroid T. Robinson, “The Bohlen-Robinson Report,” Diplomatic History 1, no. 4 (Fall 1977): 389-399, 395, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-7709.1977.tb00249.x.

Carlin, Maya, “Big Question: How Many Nuclear Weapons Does Israel Have?” The National Interest, October 27, 2023, https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/big-question-how-many-nuclear-weapons-does-israel-have-207073.

Center for Preventive Action, “War in Ukraine,” Council on Foreign Relations – Global Conflict Tracker, May 12, 2025, https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/conflict-ukraine.

CNN Staff, Natalie Croker, Byron Manley, Tim Lister, and the CNN Data and Graphics Team, “The Turning Points in Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine,” CNN, September 30, 2022, https://edition.cnn.com/interactive/2022/09/europe/russia-territory-control-ukraine-shift-dg/.

Cooper, James Ford, On the Finland Watch: An American Diplomat in Finland During the Cold War (New York, NY: Regina Books, 2000).

Cronin, Audrey Kurth, Great Power Politics and the Struggle over Austria, 1945–1955 (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1986).

Däniker, Gustav, “Swiss Security Policy in a Changing Environment,” in The European Neutrals in the 1990s: New Challenges and Opportunities, Austrian Institute for International Affairs Series, ed. Hanspeter Neuhold (Boulder, Colorado: Westview Press, 1992), 3-16.

Forsberg, Tuomas, and Matti Pesu, “The ‘Finlandisation’ of Finland: The Ideal Type, the Historical Model, and the Lessons Learnt,” Diplomacy & Statecraft 27, no. 3 (July 2016): 473-495, https://doi.org/10.1080/09592296.2016.1196069.

Frolov, Vladimir, “Betting on the Summit: Will Russia and the United States Be Able to End the Conflict in Ukraine?”Forbes, February 17, 2025, https://www.forbes.ru/mneniya/530973-stavka-na-sammit-smogut-li-rossia-i-ssa-zaversit-konflikt-na-ukraine. – in Russian

Gaddis, John Lewis, George F. Kennan: An American Life (United Kingdom: Penguin Publishing Group, 2012). 

Gady, Franz-Stefan, “Why Neutrality Is Obsolete in the 21st Century,” Foreign Policy, April 4, 2023, https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/04/04/finland-sweden-nato-neutral-austria-ireland-switzerland-russia-war/.

Gehler, Michael, and Wolfram Kaiser, “Austria and Europe, 1923–2000: A Study in Ambivalence,” in Austria in the Twentieth Century.

Gross, Jenny, and Constant Méheut, “Zelenky Tries to Sell His ‘Victory Plan’ to European Leaders,” The New York Times, October 17, 2024, https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/17/world/europe/zelensky-eu-victory-plan.html.

Haltiwanger, John, “How Much of Ukraine Does Russia Control?” Foreign Policy, August 18, 2025, https://foreignpolicy.com/2025/08/18/ukraine-war-battlefield-russia-donbas/.

Herd, Graeme P., “Russia’s War Against Ukraine: Is 2025 the Year of Peace?” in Munich Security Conference 2025, Special Edition of Europäische Sicherheit & Technik, https://www.gmfus.org/sites/default/files/2025-02/MSC_Sonderheft_V6.pdf. 

Hochschild, Adam, “Why Putin Made Peace With the Soviets’ Archenemies: Revisiting Russia’s Brutal Civil War,” The Atlantic Monthly, October 7, 2022, https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2022/11/russian-historian-books-civil-war-ukraine-invasion/671533/.

International Humanitarian Law Databases, “Convention (V) respecting the Rights and Duties of Neutral Powers and Persons in Case of War on Land, The Hague, 18 October 1907, Article 2,” accessed November 3, 2024, https://ihl-databases.icrc.org/assets/treaties/200-IHL-20-EN.pdf.

Jakobson, Max, “Finland in the New Europe,” The Washington Papers 175 (Washington, D.C.: Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1998).

Johnson-Freese, Joan, “Austria,” in Europe’s Neutral and Nonaligned States: Between NATO and the Warsaw Pact, ed. S. Victor Papocosma and Mark R. Rubin (Wilmington, Delaware: Scholarly Resources, 1998), 161-180.

Kagan, Robert, “Trump Is Facing a Catastrophic Defeat in Ukraine,” The Atlantic Monthly, January 7, 2025, https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2025/01/trump-putin-ukraine-russia-war/681228/.

Kavanagh, Jennifer, and Christopher McCallion, “Armed Neutrality for Ukraine Is NATO’s Least Poor Option,” War on the Rocks, February 18, 2025, https://warontherocks.com/2025/02/armed-neutrality-for-ukraine-is-natos-least-poor-option/.

Kennan, George F., “The Long Telegram [original], from George Kennan in Moscow to the Secretary of State, February 22, 1946,” National Security Archive, The George Washington University, https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/document/21042-long-telegram-original, https://nsarchive2.gwu.edu/coldwar/documents/episode-1/kennan.htm.

Kirvelytė, Laura, “Moldova’s Security Strategy: The Problem of Permanent Neutrality,” Lithuanian Annual Strategic Review 8, no. 1 (2010), 165-167, https://doi.org/10.47459/lasr.2010.8.7.

Lapa, Victoriia, and Justin Frosini, “Would Ukraine Breach Its Own Constitution If It Dropped Its NATO Bid?” Verfassungsblog, February 18, 2022, https://verfassungsblog.de/would-ukraine-breach-its-own-constitution-if-it-dropped-its-nato-bid/. 

Lunde, Henrik O., Finland’s War of Choice: The Troubled German-Finnish Coalition in World War II (Havertown, PA: Casemate Publishers, 2011).

Masters, Jonathan, and Will Merrow, “Here’s How Much Aid the United States Has Sent Ukraine,” Council on Foreign Relations, September 27, 2024, https://www.cfr.org/article/how-much-us-aid-going-ukraine#.

Matson, Robert W., “Finlandization: A Retrospective,” in Charting an Independent Course: Finland’s Place in the Cold War, ed. T. Michael Ruddy (New York, NY: Regina Books, 1998), 197-213.

Medvedev, Sergei, A War Made in Russia (Polity Press, July 2023).

Mission of Switzerland to the European Union, “The Neutrality and the Sanctions of Switzerland,” accessed November 4, 2024, https://www.eda.admin.ch/missions/mission-eu-brussels/en/home/key-issues/neutralitaet-der-schweiz.html.

Nechepurenko, Ivan, and Paul Sonne, “Putin Makes Cease-Fire Offer with Sweeping Demands on Ukraine’s Territory,” The New York Times, June 14, 2024, https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/14/world/europe/russia-ukraine-putin-cease-fire.html.

O’Hanlon, Michael E., Beyond NATO: A New Security Architecture for Eastern Europe, The Marshall Papers (Washington, D.C.: The Brookings Institution Press, 2017).

Office of General Counsel, US Department of Defense, Department of Defense Law of War Manual, June 2015, updated July 2023, 960, https://media.defense.gov/2023/Jul/31/2003271432/-1/-1/0/DOD-LAW-OF-WAR-MANUAL-JUNE-2015-UPDATED-JULY%202023.PDF.

Plokhy, Serhii, The Russo-Ukrainian War: The Return of History (New York: W.W. Norton & Company, May 2023), 165-167.

Putin, Vladimir, “On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians,” July 12, 2021, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66181.

Rainsford, Sarah, and Laura Gozzi, “Moldova Says ‘Yes’ to pro-EU Constitutional Changes by Tiny Margin,” BBC News, October 21, 2024, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c1wnr5qdxe7o.

Ries, Tomas, Cold Will: The Defence of Finland (London / Washington: Brassey’s Defence Publishers, 1988).

Ruddy, T. Michael, “‘The Road to Nowhere’: Finland’s Place in U.S. Cold War Policy,” in Charting an Independent Course: Finland’s Place in the Cold War and in U.S. Foreign Policy, ed. T. Michael Ruddy (New York, NY: Regina Books, 1998), 171-196.

Schmitt, Michael N., “ ‘Strict’ versus ‘Qualified,’ Neutrality,” The Lieber Institute, March 22, 2023, https://lieber.westpoint.edu/strict-versus-qualified-neutrality.

Silva, Charles, “If Finland Weren’t Finland, Would Sweden be Finland? The Finland Argument as a Rationale for Swedish Neutrality in the Early Cold War,” in Charting an Independent Course: Finland’s Place in the Cold War, ed. T. Michael Ruddy (New York, NY: Regina Books, 1998), 129-170.

Troianovski, Anton and Michael Swirtz, “The Sticking Points That Kept Russia and Ukraine Apart,” The New York Times, June 15, 2024, https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/06/15/world/europe/ukraine-russia-peace-negotiations.html.

Troianovski, Anton, Adam Entous, and Michael Schwirtz, “Ukraine-Russia Peace Is as Elusive as Ever. But in 2022 They Were Talking,” The New York Times, June 15, 2024, https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/06/15/world/europe/ukraine-russia-ceasefire-deal.html.

Vazquez, Maegan, and Karen DeYoung, “Vance Says Trump’s Plan to End War in Ukraine Could Include Creating a Demilitarized Zone,” The Washington Post, September 13, 2024, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/09/12/vance-trump-ukraine-russia-war-plan/.

Vloyantes, John, “Finland,” in Europe’s Neutral and Nonaligned States: Between NATO and the Warsaw Pact, ed. S. Victor Papocosma and Mark R. Rubin (Wilmington, Delaware: Scholarly Resources, 1998), 137-160.

Yale Law School, The Avalon Project, “The Moscow Conference, October 1943,” accessed November 22, 2024, https://avalon.law.yale.edu/wwii/moscow.asp.

Tемы