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“Why Are Tensions Mounting on the Belarus-Poland Border?” BBC, August 10, 2023, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66410230
RFE/RL Belarus Service, “Belarusian ‘Railway Guerrilla’ Handed 13 Years in Prison,” Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, January 9, 2023, https://www.rferl.org/a/belarus-railway-guerrilla-13-year-prison/32215523.html
Zoya Sheftalovich, “Belarus’ Lukashenko: ‘The Only Mistake We Made’ Was Not Finishing off Ukraine with Russia in 2014,” Politico, June 2, 2023, https://www.politico.eu/article/belarus-alexander-lukashenko-mistake-not-invade-ukraine-russia-2014-vladimir-putin/
“Statement by the Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of Belarus Y. Ambrazevich at the meeting of the OSCE Ministerial Council (November 30, 2023, Skopje),” https://mfa.gov.by/en/press/statements/c739f0832cc1b03c.html
“Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s remarks during the 30th meeting of the OSCE Ministerial Council, Skopje, November 30, 2023,” https://mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/news/1918477/
Maxim Samorukov, “The Importance of Being Russian: Can Belarus Survive the Kremlin’s War Against Ukraine?” Carnegie Politika, November 3, 2022, https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/88317
President of the Republic of Belarus, “Aleksandr Lukashenko Concludes State Visit to China,” March 2, 2023, https://president.gov.by/en/events/zavershilsya-gosudarstvennyy-vizit-aleksandra-lukashenko-v-kitayskuyu-narodnuyu-respubliku-1677744000
“Chinese-Belarusian Presidents Pledge to Enhance Ties,” Xinhua, December 4, 2023, https://english.news.cn/20231204/160174440a844fb99ea1c2c71d6d20dd/c.html
Pavel Slunkin et al., “Belarus Change Tracker, December 2022 – February 2023” (Friedrich Ebert Stiftung, 2023), 16, https://library.fes.de/pdf-files/bueros/belarus/20148-20230322.pdf
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, “Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s Remarks and Answers to Questions at a Meeting with MGIMO Students, Teachers and Professors on the Start of the New Academic Year, Moscow, September 1, 2022,” https://mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/news/1828196/
Pawel Kowal, “Moldova’s Escape from the East,” GIS Reports, May 31, 2023, https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/moldova-russia-east/
Rob Picheta, “Why Moldova Fears It Could Be Next for Putin,” CNN, February 26, 2023, https://edition.cnn.com/2023/02/26/europe/moldova-transnistria-russia-tensions-explainer-intl/index.html
“Moldova: EU Trade Relations with Moldova – Facts, Figures, and Latest Developments,” 2022, https://policy.trade.ec.europa.eu/eu-trade-relationships-country-and-region/countries-and-regions/moldova_en
Alexander Tanas, “Moldova No Longer Needs Russian Gas, Minister Says,” Reuters, March 16, 2023, https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/moldova-no-longer-needs-russian-gas-minister-says-2023-03-16/
Anca Grădinaru and Cristina Popușoi, “Interviu Ministrul de externe moldovean, la Vilnius: Apropierea Ucrainei de NATO va ajuta R. Moldova sa ramana stabila [Interview with the Moldovan Foreign Minister in Vilnius: Ukraine’s Approach to NATO Will Help the Republic of Moldova to Remain Stable],” Europa Libera Romania, July 11 2023, https://romania.europalibera.org/a/interviu-nicu-popescu-la-vilnius-miscarea-ucrainei-spre-nato-va-ajuta-r-moldova-sa-ramana-stabila-/32499134.html
“Kocharian Sees ‘Serious Support’ from Putin,” Azatutyun, September 19, 2018, https://www.azatutyun.am/a/29498757.html
RFE/RL, “Pashinian Alliance Scores ‘Revolutionary Majority’ in Landslide Armenian Win,” Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, December 8, 2018, https://www.rferl.org/a/armenian-elections-pashinian-my-step-sarkisian-hhk/29645721.html
“Document: Full Text of the Agreement between the Leaders of Russia, Armenia and Azerbaijan,” commonspace.eu, November 10, 2020, www.commonspace.eu/news/document-full-text-agreement-between-leaders-russia-armenia-and-azerbaijan
OSCE, Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR), “Republic of Armenia: Early Parliamentary Elections, 20 June 2021,” ODIHR Election Observation Mission Final Report (Warsaw: OSCE, October 27, 2021), 33, https://www.osce.org/files/f/documents/5/4/502386_0.pdf
“EU Mission in Armenia, Q&A on the EU Mission in Armenia/EUMA,” EUMA, May 12, 2023, www.eeas.europa.eu/euma/qa-eu-mission-armenia-euma_en
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Gabriel Gavin, “We Can’t Rely on Russia to Protect Us Anymore, Armenian PM Says,” Politico, September 13, 2023, https://www.politico.eu/article/we-cant-rely-russia-protect-us-anymore-nikol-pashinyan-armenia-pm/
“Putin Says ‘No Problems’ in Russia’s Ties with Armenia,” AlArabiya News, September 12, 2023, https://english.alarabiya.net/News/world/2023/09/12/Putin-says-no-problems-in-Russia-s-ties-with-Armenia
Joshua Kucera, “Is Armenia Turning to the West?” Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, September 13, 2023, https://www.rferl.org/a/armenia-pashinian-united-states-west-relations-russia-analysis/32591327.html
George Meneshian, “Azerbaijan Exploits Vacuum on Nagorno-Karabakh,” Social Europe Newsletter, September 27, 2023.
James Kilner, “Azerbaijan’s Victory Hurts a Putin Critic, but Pushes Armenia toward Western Allies,” The Telegraph, September 20, 2023, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/09/20/azerbaijan-putin-critic-armenia-western-allies-nagorno/
Ismi Aghayev, Arshaluys Barseghyan, and Shota Kincha, “Azerbaijan Demands Complete Surrender of Nagorno-Karabakh as It Launches Massive Offensive,” Open Caucasus Media, September 19, 2023, https://oc-media.org/azerbaijan-demands-complete-surrender-of-nagorno-karabakh-as-it-launches-massive-offensive/
Agil Rustamzade, “The Possibility of a New Military Confrontation between Armenia and Azerbaijan: Assessment of Risks and Threats in the Short Term,” Caucasus Strategic Perspectives 3, no. 2 (Winter 2022): 69-80, https://cspjournal.az/uploads/files/Summer%202022/Vol_3_IS_2_Winter2022/CSP_vol3%20issue2_Summer%202022%20Web%20(FINAL)%20(2).pdf
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Robert Ananyan on X, “Russian Propagandists Margarita Simonyan and Vladimir Solovyov Have Even Called on Armenians to Participate in Anti-government Demonstrations,” https://twitter.com/robananyan/status/1707133662997696672
See Michael C. Keays, “What the Resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict Teaches Us,” Kennan Cable, no. 86 (Wilson Center, December 2023), www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/media/uploads/documents/KennanCable86.pdf
[1] “Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s Message about Independence,” The Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia, September 24, 2023, https://www.primeminister.am/en/statements-and-messages/item/2023/09/24/Nikol-Pashinyan-messages/
According to Human Development Index, Corruption Perception Index, Human Freedom Index, Democracy Index, Henley Passport Index as of October 2, 2023.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, “Foreign Ministry Statement Regarding an Address by the Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia, Nikol Pashinyan, and the Situation around Nagorno-Karabakh,” September 25, 2023, https://mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/news/1906229/
“‘They Will Gain Strength and ...’: Primakovʼs 30-Year-old Prophecy about Nagorno-Karabakh Has Been Fulfilled,” November 13, 2020, accessed March 31, 2021, https://tsargrad.tv/news/oni-naberut-sily-i-ispolnilos-prorochestvo-primakova-30-letnej-davnosti-o-nagornom-karabahe_297593
Georgi Gotev, “Kazakh Official: We Will Not Risk Being Placed in the Same Basket as Russia,” Euractiv, March 29, 2022, Interview with Timur Suleimenov, Deputy chief of staff of the presidential administration of Kazakhstan, https://www.euractiv.com/section/central-asia/interview/kazakh-official-we-will-not-risk-being-placed-in-the-same-basket-as-russia/
Georgi Gotev, “Kazakhstan Takes Distance from Russia’s Ukraine War,” Euractiv,March 2, 2022, https://www.euractiv.com/section/central-asia/news/kazakhstan-takes-distance-from-russias-ukraine-war/
Almaz Kumenov, “Russia Blocks Kazakhstan’s Main Outlet for Oil Export,” eurasianet, July 6, 2022, https://eurasianet.org/russia-blocks-kazakhstans-main-outlet-for-oil-exports
Vyacheslav Nikonov’s comments on the television talk show of Pervy Kanal, Bol’shaya Igra, on December 10, 2020. Bruce Pannier, “An Old Refrain: Russian Lawmakers Question Kazakhstan’s Territorial Integrity, Statehood,” Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, December 16, 2020, https://rferl.org/a/russia-lawmakers-question-kazakhstan-territorial-integrity-statehood/31003732.html
Kumenov, “Russia Blocks Kazakhstan’s Main Outlet for Oil Export; “Russia Reverses Course on Oil Pipeline Needed by Kazakhstan,” eurasianet, July 11, 2022, https://eurasianet.org/russia-reverses-course-on-oil-pipeline-needed-by-kazakhstan
Ildar Yakubov, “Opportunities and Limits of Cooperation Between Uzbekistan and Russia,” Central Asian Bureau for Analytical Reporting (CABAR), July 12, 2021, https://cabar.asia/en/opportunities-and-limits-of-cooperation-between-uzbekistan-and-russia; “4th Meeting of the Russia-Uzbekistan Joint Commission at the Level of Heads of Government,” The Russian Government, September 18, 2023, http://government.ru/en/news/49526/
“Uzbekistan: Remittances, Percent of GDP,” based on World Bank data, 2021, https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/Uzbekistan/remittances_percentGDP/
Caress Schenk, “Post-Soviet Labor Migrants in Russia Face New Questions amid War in Ukraine,” Migration Information Source (Migration Policy Institute), February 7, 2023, www.migrationpolicy.org/article/labor-migrants-russia-ukraine-war
Ryota Saito, “The Sense of Distance between Central Asia and Russia Seen from the CIS Summit: The Background to the Rahmon Statement, and Putin’s ‘View of the Alliance’,” International Information Network Analysis (Sasakawa Peace Foundation), December 13, 2022, https://www.spf.org/iina/en/articles/saito_02.html
“Tajikistan: Remittances, percent of GDP,” based on World Bank data, 2022, https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/Tajikistan/remittances_percent_GDP/
Olzhas Auyezov, “‘We Want Respect’: Putin’s Authority Tested in Central Asia,” Reuters, October 18, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/world/we-want-respect-putins-authority-tested-central-asia-2022-10-18/
Luca Anceschi, “The Right Distance: Russia-Central Asia Relations in the Aftermath of the Invasion of Ukraine,” Russian Analytical Digest, no. 289, November 30, 2022, https://www.ssoar.info/ssoar/bitstream/handle/document/86793/ssoar-russanald-2022-289-anceschi-The_Right_Distance_Russia-Central_Asia.pdf
Yan Shenkman, “Armenia Says Farewell to the Russian Empire – but It’s Not Over Yet,” Open Democracy, September 22, 2023, https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/odr/armenia-azerbaijan-nagorno-karabakh-coup-yerevan-russia-pashinyan-putin/
“After Pashinyan, Simonyan Also Refuses to Participate in CSTO Meeting; Response from Russia,” Caucasus Watch, November 23, 2023, https://caucasuswatch.de/en/news/after-pashinyan-simonyan-also-refuses-to-participate-in-csto-meeting-response-from-russia.html
“Three Military Drills Are Planned in Belarus during This Year,” Belta.by, February 13, 2023, www.belta.by/politics/view/provedenie-treh-uchenij-odkb-zaplanirovano-v-belarusi-v-etom-godu-549880-2023/
Mark Temnycky, “The Demise of Putin’s Little Non-NATO,” Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), September 6, 2023, https://cepa.org/article/the-demise-of-putins-little-non-nato/
Based on data from https://cia.gov and author’s own calculations, 27 April 2023.